Wednesday, 09 May, 2018

Warm May on Pace for Record Low Gas-Weighted HDDs

GAITHERSBURG, MD - (May 9, 2018) The weather this spring has not felt spring-like very often, as a March and April punctuated by record chill and late season snow is now followed by a May featuring summer-like heat and unusually low heating demand. The first few days of May featured record heat in the Eastern US, which was then followed by record heat in the Southwest as Phoenix peaked up to 106°F. Near-record heat is possible this weekend in parts of the South, and from a broader perspective the forecast for the next two weeks features above normal temperatures virtually coast-to-coast. This warm forecast puts May on track for a record low national gas-weighted HDD total since 1950 by a wide margin, on pace to yield about 70% of the current record lowest total from 2012. Additionally, the month is expected to reach a top five total of population-weighted CDDs since 1950. “The next couple of weeks will offer some opportunities for variability,” says Bradley Harvey, Lead Meteorologist at Radiant Solutions. “That said, the net pattern will include warmer than normal conditions across most of the US.” 

As we approach the summer season, it is worth noting that our research shows that the Top 10 warmest Mays from a gas-weighted HDD perspective progressed forward to a wide variety of outcomes in summer, lending to no historical correlation between significant May warmth and summer temperatures. However, we do expect that some of the atmospheric and oceanic signals that are driving this May warmth will continue to be driving factors of a hotter than normal summer season. 

Share this post